SHY vs TLT: Which ETF Is Better in 2026?
A metric-by-metric comparison of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — both US Bonds - Government funds — using ETFValuer's daily-updated rankings.
Educational content — not financial advice. Data as of July 25, 2026. ~5 minute read.
The Verdict
SHY and TLT compete directly — both are US Bonds - Government funds chasing the same job in a portfolio. That makes this a genuine either/or: the index each tracks, what it costs, and how it has handled drawdowns are what separate them, not the broad exposure they give you.
On ETFValuer's overall model — which blends return, risk-adjusted performance, cost, drawdown, size and volatility — SHY scores higher: 55.0 (Grade C) versus 49.5 for TLT. That doesn't make TLT a bad fund; it means SHY currently edges it out on this specific mix of factors. Read the metric-by-metric breakdown below before deciding which matters more for your own portfolio.
Head-to-Head: Every Metric
| SHY | TLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Category | US Bonds - Government | US Bonds - Government |
| Expense ratio | 0.15% | 0.15% |
| Fund size (AUM) | $25.4B | $41.1B |
| Dividend yield | 0.38% | 2.59% |
| 1-year return | +2.79% | +1.17% |
| 3-year return | +12.81% | -5.72% |
| Volatility | 1.39% | 9.33% |
| Max drawdown | -0.97% | -17.54% |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.60 | -0.41 |
| ETFValuer score | 55.0 | 49.5 |
| Grade | C | D |
| Overall rank | #324 | #381 |
Bold marks the better value in each row. "Better" is directional only (e.g. lower cost, higher return) — it isn't a recommendation by itself. See the full methodology.
Cost
On cost, the two are essentially tied — SHY charges 0.15% a year versus TLT's 0.15%. A difference this small (about $0.00 a year on a $10,000 position) isn't a reason to choose one fund over the other.
What SHY's Fees Cost You
SHY charges an expense ratio of 0.15% a year, deducted automatically from the fund's value. Small percentages compound into real money — adjust the figures below to see the impact on your own numbers.
Assumes a constant gross return and no additional contributions — a simplification, but it isolates exactly what the expense ratio costs. Try the full fee calculator to model contributions and compare any two funds.
Performance & Risk
Over the trailing 3 years, SHY returned +12.81% versus -5.72% for TLT — a gap of about 18.5 percentage points. On risk, SHY has held up better historically, with a shallower max drawdown (-0.97% vs. -17.54%). TLT currently has the better risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio of -0.41 vs. -1.60), meaning it delivered more return per unit of volatility taken on.
How Closely Do They Track Each Other?
Over the last 3.0 years of daily returns (752 shared trading days), SHY and TLT show a moderate correlation of 0.642 — related but meaningfully different. That's loose enough that the two funds do behave differently in a meaningful share of market conditions — holding both is defensible if you want exposure to each mandate.
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Daily return correlation | 0.642 | Moderate — related but meaningfully different |
| R-squared | 41.2% | 41.2% of SHY's daily moves are explained by TLT's |
| Tracking error (annualised) | 12.78% | Typical yearly spread between the two funds' returns |
| Annualised return over 3.0y | SHY +4.14% · TLT -2.30% | SHY ahead by 6.45 points a year |
Correlation alone understates how far these can drift. Across every rolling 12-month window in the period, SHY finished as much as +13.5 points ahead of TLT at the best extreme and -11.7 points at the worst — a 25.2-point spread between the best and worst year of relative performance. Two funds can correlate tightly day to day and still deliver very different outcomes over any single year you happen to hold them.
Calculated from daily total returns over the trailing 3-year window, recomputed every day this site refreshes. Correlation of 1.00 means the two funds moved in lockstep; 0.00 means their daily moves were unrelated.
Holdings Overlap
SHY and TLT hold 1 of the same companies among their top 10 positions. Those shared names make up 14.6% of SHY and 41.9% of TLT. That's modest duplication — the funds are mostly distinct at the top, so holding both can still add diversification.
| Shared Holding | SHY Weight | TLT Weight |
|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 14.59% | 41.92% |
Compares the top 10 reported holdings from each fund's most recent SEC N-PORT-P filing, so it understates total overlap — funds tracking similar indexes overlap far more deeply than the top 10 alone can show. Search any company across all tracked funds with the Stock Overlap tool.
Which One Should You Pick?
Lean SHY if…
- It has been the calmer ride (1.4% volatility vs 9.3%) with a shallower worst-case fall (-1.0% vs -17.5%)
- You weight recent results heavily — it returned 12.8% over 3 years against -5.7%
Lean TLT if…
- Current income matters to you — it yields 2.59% against 0.38%
- You care about return per unit of risk — its Sharpe ratio of -0.41 beats -1.60
Whichever you pick, holding both at full weight is usually the wrong answer — see the overlap and correlation sections above.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHY or TLT better?
On ETFValuer's overall model — which blends return, risk-adjusted performance, cost, drawdown, size and volatility — SHY scores higher: 55.0 (Grade C) versus 49.5 for TLT. That doesn't make TLT a bad fund; it means SHY currently edges it out on this specific mix of factors. Read the metric-by-metric breakdown below before deciding which matters more for your own portfolio.
Which has the lower expense ratio, SHY or TLT?
TLT currently has the lower expense ratio (0.15% vs. 0.15%).
Can I hold both SHY and TLT?
Yes, and it may be worth doing. SHY and TLT correlate at only 0.64 over the past 3.0 years, so they behave differently enough that holding both is a genuine diversification decision rather than a redundant one. Size each to the role you want it to play.
Go deeper on either fund
Full daily-updated metrics, holdings context, and category peers.